What Makes The Current American Government Shutdown Distinct (as well as Harder to Resolve)?
Government closures have become a recurring feature in American political life – however the current situation appears especially difficult to resolve due to shifting political forces and deep-seated animosity among both major parties.
Some government services are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 employees likely to be placed on furlough without pay since Republicans and Democrats can't agree on a spending bill.
Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path in this instance as both parties – including the President – perceive advantages in digging in.
These are the four ways that make things feel different currently.
1. For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – not just healthcare
The Democratic base have insisted over recent periods for their representatives more forcefully fights the current presidency. Well now the party leadership has a chance to demonstrate they have listened.
Earlier this year, Senate leader faced strong criticism after supporting a Republican spending bill and averting a shutdown early this year. This time he's holding firm.
This is a chance for the Democratic party to show their ability to reclaim some control from an administration that has moved aggressively on its agenda.
Opposing the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk that the wider public will grow frustrated with prolonged negotiations and impacts accumulate.
The Democrats are using the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and Republican-approved federal health program reductions affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.
Additionally, they're attempting to restrict the President's use of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated with foreign aid and other programmes.
Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The administration leader along with a senior aide have openly indicated their perspective that they perceive an opening to advance further reductions in government employment that have featured in the Republican's second presidency so far.
The President himself said last week that the government closure provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", adding he intended to cut "Democrat agencies".
The White House said it would be left with the "unenviable task" involving significant workforce reductions to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson said this was just "fiscal sanity".
The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, though administration officials have been consulting with the Office of Management and Budget, the budgeting office, which is headed by the key official.
The budget director has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, such as NYC and Chicago.
3. There's little trust between both parties
While previous shutdowns have been characterised by extended negotiations between the two parties in an effort to get federal operations, there appears to be little of the same spirit for compromise presently.
Conversely, there is rancour. Political tensions persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.
House Speaker from the majority party, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and maintaining positions during discussions "to get political cover".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader made similar charges against their counterparts, saying that a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies once the government reopens can not be taken seriously.
The administration leader personally has escalated tensions by posting a controversial AI-generated image of the Senate leader along with another senior opposition figure, where the legislator is depicted with traditional headwear and a moustache.
The representative and other Democrats called this racist, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.
4. The US economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of the federal workforce – over 800,000 workers – to be put on unpaid leave due to the shutdown.
That will depress spending – and also have wider ramifications, including halted environmental approvals, delayed intellectual property processing, payments to contractors along with various forms of government activity tied to business cease functioning.
A shutdown also injects new uncertainty within economic systems currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from trade measures, previous budget reductions, enforcement actions and artificial intelligence.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.
However, economic activity generally rebounds the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.
This might explain partially why the stock market have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.
Conversely, analysts say that if the President carries out his threat of mass firings, the damage could be more long-lasting.